During my recent conversation with Peter Kraus, which was supposed to be focused on Aperture and its launch of the Aperture New World Opportunities Fund, I couldn’t help veering off into tangents about the market in general. Below is Kraus’ take on the availability of alpha generation, the Fed, inflation vs. Amazon, housing, the cross-ownership of US equities by a few huge funds and high-frequency trading.
Gregg Schoenberg: Will alpha be more available over the next five years than it has been over the last five?
To think that at some point equities won’t become more volatile and decline 20% to 30%… I think it’s crazy.
Peter Kraus: Do I think it’s more available in the next five years than it was in the last five years? No. Do I think people will pay more attention to it? Yes, because when markets are up to 30%, if you get another five, it doesn’t matter. When markets are down 30% and I save you five by being 25% down, you care.
GS: Is the Fed’s next move up or down?
PK: I think the Fed does zero, nothing. In terms of its next interest rate move, in my judgment, there’s a higher probability that it’s down versus up.
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