Will Giants trade Madison Bumgarner, other assets? Ranking the probabilities

On one hand, the Giants are in a transitional year and need to rebuild by getting younger and more athletic. On the other hand, they’re one of baseball’s hottest teams and in the thick of the wild-card race.

What does Farhan Zaidi do?

The trade deadline is July 31, and the Giants are either on the verge of an amazing playoff run or on the eve of a massive selling spree. Or maybe both, depending on how Zaidi game-plans the coming days and orchestrates at the deadline.

In any case, if the Giants’ president of baseball operations decides to sell, here’s a look at where players rank in terms of the likelihood they’ll get traded (with stats through Wednesday):

Will Smith (80 percent chance he’s traded): Bidding is expected to be hot and heavy for the left-hander who’s near perfect in save situations. He’d be a nice fit on most any team with playoff aspirations including the Dodgers, Cardinals, Twins, Rays and Brewers. For one of the best relievers on the market, the Giants could get a legitimate prospect, perhaps a hitter who could help right away or by 2020 at the latest.

Sam Dyson (75 percent): The groundball specialist has been overshadowed by Smith, but Dyson is enjoying a fantastic year with impeccable control: 44 strikeouts and six walks in 46 innings. Unlike Madison Bumgarner and Smith, Dyson is under club control through next season, so he’d be a perfect pickup for a team such as the A’s, who need to deepen their bullpen and prefer someone who could stick around beyond 2019.

Madison Bumgarner (70 percent): The numbers, especially lately (1.80 ERA, 28 strikeouts, 20 innings in his past four starts), are impressive. But not as impressive as Bumgarner’s postseason track record, which pushes his value – even five years after his last World Series appearance – to a higher level. For starters, the return should be an elite prospect (and change), whether it’s a potential front-line starter or outfielder with pop.

Reyes Moronta (55 percent): The Giants believe they have other hard-throwing relievers in the minors to replace the 26-year-old Moronta, who’s a valuable chip because of his fastball, youth and limited service time.

Tony Watson (45 percent): The lefty could be coveted at the deadline by teams who miss out on Smith, though Watson would be due as much as $11 million after July 31 for the rest of his contract through next year. The Cubs are among teams seeking a lefty reliever.

Jeff Samardzija (35 percent): He has a 1.66 ERA in three July starts but would be dealt only if the Giants eat a healthy portion of what’s left. The $90 million contract expires after next season with the final $18 million installment.

Tyler Austin (30 percent): A change of scenery could be beneficial. Yes, he has pop, but he’s also somewhat of a liability for a team that has a four-man bench because of his inability to hit right-handers.

Pablo Sandoval (25 percent): He has value because he’s making the minimum (thank you, Red Sox) and is versatile as a corner infielder and pinch-hitter with power (more extra-base hits than singles), but he’s needed in Giantsville because of third baseman Evan Longoria’s foot injury that’ll keep him shelved beyond the injured list’s 10-day minimum.

Trevor Gott (20 percent): He could provide a contender some bullpen depth. He’s one of the league’s best at stranding inherited runners.

Kevin Pillar (15 percent): Look at this list. So far, mostly pitchers. That’s the norm throughout the industry approaching the deadline. It’s not a deep hitters’ market, so teams might have interest in the outfielder, who’s hitting .311 since June 14, to improve their outfield defense.

Stephen Vogt (15 percent): People who know Vogt know he’s an asset as a backup catcher, line-drive hitter and clubhouse uniter. Something every contenting team needs. The brass likes him a lot, knowing he could be another set of eyes in the Joey Bart Watch, not to mention a future manager.

Joe Panik (15 percent): The second baseman was one of the most tradeable assets at one point because he was the one everyday player without an expensive contract.

Brandon Belt (10 percent): Among the team’s big-money, long-term guys, he’s probably the most desirable considering his gap power, ability to get on base and defense, but he has limited no-trade rights and gets $16 million each of the next two years.

Derek Holland (10 percent): The long reliever is making $6.5 million and isn’t close to his form of 2018, when he had a bounce-back year.

Drew Pomeranz (5 percent): Teams might not be lining up as we speak. Then again, the lefty has given up two or fewer runs in three of his past four starts.

Evan Longoria (0 percent): There might have been a slight chance for a trade, but that was before he was shelved with plantar fasciitis.

Johnny Cueto (0 percent): That $130 million contract doesn’t expire until after the 2021 season. So what’s to talk about?

Mark Melancon (0 percent): The former closer’s $62 million deal has another year remaining. Oh, and he has full no-trade protection.

Buster Posey (0 percent): If they can trade Willie Mays, they can trade anybody, right? Not quite. Mays didn’t have a full no-trade clause. Posey does.

Brandon Crawford (0 percent): He can veto any trade. He grew up by the bay. He’ll stay by the bay.

John Shea is The San Francisco Chronicle’s national baseball writer. Email: jshea@sfchronicle.com Twitter: @JohnSheaHey

This post was originally posted at https://www.sfgate.com/giants/article/Will-Giants-trade-Madison-Bumgarner-other-14105662.php.

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