It’s early, but the Giants deadline moves are looking like a mistake

It may be early, but it doesn’t look good.

Since beating the Phillies 5-1 on July 31, the day of the MLB trade deadline, the Giants have lost 5 of their past 6 games. Their 56-58 record puts them 3.5 games back of the second Wild Card behind four other teams vying for the spot.

Their odds of making the Wild Card game, sitting at an unlikely-but-possible 5.9% on the day of the deadline, have already sunk to 1.4% in less than a week.

(Giants fans, avert your eyes from the Dodgers line on the graph below.)

Giants playoff odds Photo: Fangraphs

Photo: Fangraphs

Giants playoff odds

For Farhan Zaidi, an analytically minded executive, the deadline must have been a difficult exercise. Even 5.9% odds of making the Wild Card — meaning the chance to play a one-game playoff for a spot in the Division Series — is not exactly the type of opportunity that prompts numbers-savvy decision makers to hold tight to their assets.

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But the Giants’ 19-6 July record likely forced Zaidi’s hand. A timely hot streak put the team tantalizingly close to a Wild Card spot; on July 31, the optics of the Giants handing over Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith for a few anonymous teenagers would have been untenable.

Just a few days later, one can imagine Giants fans singing a different tune. The honeymoon glow of the hot streak is gone, replaced with the sobering reality of a sub-.500 record and a subpar roster with a near-invisible shot at a Wild Card berth. That’s… not ideal.

Michael Rosen is an SFGATE homepage editor. Email:

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